The future of a circular model for plastics
Dave Gray speaks to Dewey Johnson, Chemical Market Analytics, to find out how far the plastics industry really is from achieving true circularity.
DG: What do you mean when we speak of a circular model for plastics?
DJ: Today, there’s no denying that the plastics sector is at an unprecedented inflection point.
For plastics producers and brand owners alike, sustainability is now a key priority given that thetransition to a circular plastics economy is an integral element within the overall effort to achievenet zero.
In a world filled with finite raw material resources, developing and maintaining a comprehensivecircular ecosystem will require us to keep existing resources in use for as long as possible tominimise waste generation. Following on from this, an effective circular model would then allowthe recovery and regeneration of valuable materials and products at the end of each service life.
As a model of production and consumption, a circular model functions by driving materialsconsistently around a closed loop system. This allows the system to maintain the value withinrather than discarding it, or allowing it to leak into the environment surrounding us – in theory,reducing material waste to minimal levels.
Left unchecked, the status quo facing us is quite stark. Recent Chemical Markets Analytics datasuggests that, global plastics waste production could reach as much as 320 million metric tonsper year by 2030. This could elevate the current environmental challenge that plastics wasteposes to new heights, and for years to come.
DG: What are the key challenges to moving beyond a linear model?
DJ: Our work at Chemical Market Analytics has highlighted a number of disruptive truths thatrequire attention from stakeholders across the circular plastics value chain. For example, our recent modelling has shown that the quantity of plastic waste is projected to increase by 60-70% over the next 30 years. Currently, around 9% of this is recycled. And while this figure could reach 15-17% by 2030, this will require meaningful investment intoinfrastructure and recycling technologies.
Our research also highlights that a significant portion of the projected waste increase will comeabout as a consequence of growth in population and living standards in less economicallydeveloped regions, for example, Africa, India and South-East Asia. These regions are currentlycharacterized by low collection, recycling and recovery rates when it comes to plastics, whichmeans large volumes of plastic waste are leaking into local environments, polluting landfills andwater supplies in some of the most globally vulnerable regions. Many collection systems areoverwhelmed with waste volumes of all materials and do not currently drive effective economiesof scale.
This also includes those located in the Global North. Much of this waste is being generated at a significant distance from where the plastics demand centres are located. For example, production of petrochemical plastics typically happens in North America, the Middle East, Europe and China, but the associated waste is projected to appear in regions far from where the source materials originate. As regulatory efforts accelerate and investment into improving plastic waste infrastructure increases, the ability to monitorevolving risks, costs and emissions will prove increasingly pivotal to achieve meaningful change.
DG: How can technology help us bridge the gap?
DJ: Over the past half-century, multiple plastic recycling technologies have risen to prominence.
Take mechanical recycling for example. Such an approach has existed since the 1950s andworks by non-chemical means to process plastics waste into secondary raw materials for use innew contexts. Given the maturity of the technology, focusing on a mechanical recycling approach holds significant advantages from a CAPEX and operating costs perspective.
This consequently enables stakeholders to achieve break-even economics sooner on investment. Additionally, mechanical recycling of plastics by definition avoids the need to tamper with the chemical make-up of plastics, which minimises the amount of CO2 released in the recycling process.
However, there are potential drawbacks. Mechanical recycling reduces the quality of plastics as they pass through the process, reducing their efficacy and potential use cases over time. A lack of feedstock is also a potential barrier, as there are currently stringent quality specifications thatlimit the types of plastic waste to which mechanical recycling technologies can be applied.
To move beyond the degradation problem, chemical and other recycling technologies such aspyrolysis and gasification, as well as depolymerisation and solvent solution and dissolution, areoften proposed as alternative solutions. Pyrolysis and gasification in particular can effectivelybreak down low-quality plastic waste feedstocks, but the nascent nature of these technologies means that in the short term, they require significant CAPEX requirements, pushing break-evenpoints well into the future.
At Chemical Market Analytics, we track more than 120 different
recycling technologies in varying stages of development, which illustrates the significantcomplexity involved in selecting the appropriate technology for each use case.
DG: How pressing is plastic circularity for businesses and key stakeholders? Are we making much progress?
DJ: It cannot be denied that there are currently different perspectives on urgency, depending onthe audience. Plastic producer attitudes often differ from the brands that use their products. Forexample, consumer goods companies such as Coke and Pepsi are on the record with publicpledges to drive reusable packaging and plastics by 2030 given consumer demand.
Regulatory scrutiny is also accelerating with the UK’s Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) reporting requirements and the U.S. government’s EPA Draft National Strategy to Prevent PlasticPollution driving increased scrutiny on brands when it comes to their attitudes about recyclingplastics. Plastic producers, on the other hand, may not feel the same pressure, attracting lessmedia and regulatory scrutiny as plastic feedstock suppliers.
Increased attention on global logistics issues when it comes to circularity in plastics is also anongoing concern. The issue of plastic waste generation being located at a significant distancefrom where recycling and reuse can take place means that global supply chains need to adapt to drive cost efficiency. This requires careful consideration of whether it may make economic sense to carry out chemical recycling pyrolysis at a small modular installation in one location before transporting the pyrolysis oil to petrochemical centres for further processing.
Such additional complexity is a key concern for plastics producers and brands alike. Ultimately, the plastic value chain as a whole must align itself with government regulation as it evolves to ensure progress on circularity is achieved in a strategic, cost-efficient fashion. The current discrepancy between global manufacturing and delivery of traditional plastics versus thedevelopment and scaling of “reverse” plastics highlights the need to effectively track progressand promote investment in these technologies to drive change.DG: Will plastics really move the needle when it comes to overall sustainability efforts?
DJ: There’s no denying that urgent action is needed on the issue of plastic waste and driving
increased uptake of the circular model. Currently, the “plastics end-of-life” challenge is expectedto get worse before it gets better. In both the short and long term, it is important for stakeholdersto carry out comprehensive life cycle analyses on an ongoing basis to maintain visibility oncurrent priorities.
For meaningful action to be achieved, a global alignment of government policies, stakeholdervalues, financial support and application of transformative technologies must be prioritisedacross the entire plastics value chain. Achieving meaningful progress when it comes tocircularity in plastics will require organisations to be increasingly nimble when adapting tochange and have the right data and business intelligence at hand to make informed decisions.