US PET and aromatics markets face major restructuring if plastics recycling goals met by 2030

Meeting current US recycled plastics content goals by 2030 would significantly alter the region’s PET resin and upstream aromatics markets, according to a recent analysis from Wood Mackenzie.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis estimates the amount of PET bottles required to meet the 25 per cent rPET content goal for carbonated soft drink and PET water bottles is equivalent to 1.5 million tonnes in 2025 and 2.2 million tonnes in 2030.

This would require an additional 400,000 million tonnes of PET bottles collected by 2025, a 38 per cent increase in PET bottle collections by 2025 and a 78 per cent increase in PET bottle collection by 2030, compared to Wood Mackenzie’s current base-line forecast.

A second scenario, which applies to all beverage PET bottles, show that the amount of PET bottles needed to meet the 25 per cent recycled content goal is 1.7 million tonnes in 2025 and 2.9 million tonnes in 2030.

In this scenario, current sustainability goals would require an additional 600,000 tonnes of PET collected and a 53 per cent recycling rate by 2025.

An additional 1.6 million tonnes would need to be collected, with a 78 per cent recycling rate, by 2030, a 137 per cent increase in PET bottle collections by 2025, and a 209 per cent increase in PET bottle collection by 2030, compared to the base-line forecast.

Dr Michael Bermish, Wood Mackenzie Chemicals Principal Analyst, said: “Both scenarios suggest the current amount of PET bottles collected, on a tonnage basis, will fall far short of what is needed to meet the ambitious recycling goals set by many brands.”

“Clearly, a large gap exists between existing corporate sustainability goals and the current state of the US rPET market. Our previous analysis, undertaken earlier this year, found that up to $3 billion in additional capital investment would be required to achieve current US recycled plastics content goals by 2030.”

“Nevertheless, major brand owners are committed to fulfilling these commitments in the face of consumer backlash.”